Barcelona remain the team to beat in LaLiga, with Opta’s projections placing them firmly at the top of the title race after seven matchdays. Hansi Flick’s side have won all seven of their league matches for 21 points, and the model assigns them a 75.59% chance of winning the championship in 2026/27.
Real Madrid’s setback at the Metropolitano has reshaped the picture behind them. The 2-1 loss to Atlético Madrid left José Mourinho’s team on 15 points and cut their title probability to 16.48%, down from the 31% they held before the season began.
The gap between the two clubs is also reflected in the projected points totals at the end of the campaign. Opta estimates that Barcelona would finish on 87.25 points, with Real Madrid on 76.40 and Atlético Madrid — currently ahead of Real Madrid in the standings — third in the simulation on 70.37.
Barcelona’s perfect start has been built on a prolific attack. Flick’s team defeated Sevilla 3-1 on Matchday 7 and have scored 31 goals in the league so far, an average of 4.43 per game. That offensive output accounts for much of the difference between them and Real Madrid, and maintaining such a pace would leave them with a tally far beyond LaLiga’s usual marks. The record for points in a single season stands at 100, set by Real Madrid in 2011-12 and matched by Barcelona in 2012-13.
The derby victory lifted Atlético to 16 points and moved Diego Simeone’s team ahead of Real Madrid. With three consecutive wins behind them, they rank third in the simulation and are given a 5.65% chance of finishing as champions. Real Betis also feature among the sides with a shot at the title: the Green-and-Whites have 16 points and sit fourth in the projections, with a 1.85% chance of winning LaLiga.
For Real Madrid, the priority now is to regain ground after their defeat at the Metropolitano. Although the model still ranks them as the second favourite for the title, they trail Barcelona by six points and their projected odds have dropped significantly compared with the start of the season.