A verdict has been reached in the long-running case against Manchester City over 115 charges, with the club found guilty of the majority of financial rule breaches. The outcome did not come from the Premier League or from City: it emerged after the Athletic broke the story, and BBC Sport was later told the verdict had been sent during the week to club executives, who had to sign a non-disclosure agreement to open the file. It came two years and 10 days after the hearing began, and 1,329 days after City were charged.
The Premier League’s public silence has continued. City’s own statement did not address whether they had been found guilty, making clear instead that the “process remains ongoing” from their point of view, with an appeal expected. The strong suggestion is that the independent panel’s decision is not the closing chapter but the end of the beginning — and that the chaos and uncertainty around the case will only increase.
Punishment remains the great unknown. The charges are serious enough that some form of points deduction now appears inevitable, subject to any appeal by City, who have always insisted they have done nothing wrong. When and how any sanction is applied matters not only for City but for the Premier League as a whole. Deciding the punishment should be quicker than establishing guilt, but nothing is certain: because the charges were denied, the matter must go to a sanction hearing convened by the independent panel, and BBC Sport has been told that hearing could still be months away, with the result possibly not published until an appeal is completed. At that hearing, fines, points deductions and even demotion would all be on the table.
The contrast with Chelsea’s case earlier this year is instructive. The Stamford Bridge club self-reported, admitted guilt, and were therefore able to negotiate with the Premier League and reach a sanctioning agreement. City could in theory hold their hands up and try to agree a deal — which would be cleaner for the league — but that looks unlikely given the club’s consistently strong denials over many years. The panel will instead have to comb through hundreds of pages of evidence.
The precedents point towards a heavy penalty. Everton were docked six points, reduced from 10 on appeal, and then two points in a separate case for breaches of profit and sustainability rules, while Nottingham Forest were deducted four. Those were treated as minor breaches, and City faced seven separate PSR charges in the Premier League alone, plus a further five related to Uefa competitions. That is before the inflated sponsorship revenue allegedly channelled through the companies’ accounts as a means of meeting financial fair play rules, the payments to players and managers, and a failure to comply with investigations. Taken together, it places an asterisk against the Premier League between 2009 and 2018 — a period in which City won seven domestic trophies.
If no punishment is announced this season, the questions become awkward ones. Could a penalty be backdated to this season when it is finally awarded? Unlikely. Enzo Maresca’s side go to Liverpool on 11 October when the Premier League resumes after the international break and could go six points clear at the top; the article’s own framing asks whether that would be rendered meaningless. The integrity of the competition is at stake, as is the position of clubs at the other end of the table — Coventry are third from bottom, and a side relegated this season might have stayed up had City’s punishment arrived sooner. This inertia is terrible news for the Premier League as a competition, and while a sanctioning agreement is arguably the cleanest way out, that may not be palatable to a league that would have to negotiate with a club presumably seeking a lesser punishment.
Should a penalty be levied this season and appealed, the usual process is that it applies immediately, subject to that appeal. It could be a points deduction so large that it is effectively a relegation. If City’s membership of the Premier League were revoked, it is unclear how that might be applied mid-season. A huge fine is another theoretical outcome, though it would seem unlikely given the points deductions handed to other clubs. The league would normally ask the independent arbitration company handling disciplinary cases for an expedited process, but the complexities here indicate nothing is straightforward. There is a slim chance the punishment is applied to the league table only after the appeal — which would surely bring protests from impacted teams demanding it take effect immediately.
The cleanest outcome, at least for the competition’s integrity, would be an appeal heard quickly and a full decision announced so that all clubs know what they are playing for. The Premier League does not want this dragging into the closing weeks of the season: last season a points deduction for West Bromwich Albion over profit and sustainability breaches was not announced until 24 April, plunging them back into a relegation fight when they believed they were safe and giving hope to teams in the drop zone. Nothing is guaranteed here — and City could yet win their appeal, as they did over Uefa’s punishment in July 2020, a result that would be celebrated at the Etihad Stadium but would be unlikely to end the acrimony.
Even a closed case may not be the end. Premier League clubs are seeking legal advice about compensation from Manchester City, with one source who held a senior executive position at two top-flight clubs saying they expected clubs to submit individual claims. Another leading lawyer told the BBC the process could even be centralised by the league. Premier League rules allow clubs to seek legal action against each other for compensation, and in June Everton were told they must pay Burnley £35m after breaking PSR over a three-year period — Burnley having argued the breach damaged their chances of staying up and sought compensation for the losses associated with relegation. Everton are appealing, with sources previously saying they would “robustly and thoroughly” contest the ruling.
There is also uncertainty over a statute of limitations, which would set a cut-off point for claims. Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur reportedly preserved their rights to claim compensation two years ago. This is not only about the clubs who finished as runners-up to City in their title-winning seasons — it is about those who just missed out on the Champions League, failed to make Europe, or were relegated, and could extend to claims over prize money for each Premier League place or commercial earnings lost.
Kieran Maguire, professor of football finance at the University of Liverpool, told BBC Sport the complaints would rest on a “denial of an opportunity”. Maguire explained that the “statute of limitations is not referenced” in the Premier League’s traditional handbook, though that could be subject to a legal challenge from City. On the scale of any claim, he pointed to Champions League qualification: “The Champions League in those days was worth a minimum of £30m,” he said. “I think by the time we got to 2018, it was probably worth £60m or £70m, and that’s in prize money. On top of that, you could claim for loss of gate receipts, loss of sponsor bonuses. This is highly unlikely, but it’s certainly being discussed.” He added that player bonuses for Champions League qualification are normally in the region of 25%, and that an average salary around 2012 would have been roughly £80,000 to £90,000 a week — making 25% worth four or five million pounds a year.
Points deductions, fines and compensation claims: this is an extremely messy situation for the Premier League, and it does not look like being resolved anytime soon.