Sebastien Pocognoli remains without a win as Scotland head coach after a goalless draw in Slovenia was followed by a bruising 3-0 home defeat by Switzerland. The 39-year-old Belgian takes his side to Skopje on Saturday for their Nations League Group B1 meeting with North Macedonia, the lowest-ranked team in the group. North Macedonia have already lost to both Switzerland and Slovenia, giving Scotland a clear opportunity to claim a first victory under Pocognoli, and the match is being viewed as a must-win for Scotland’s outside hopes of finishing top ahead of Switzerland, or even second.
Scotland’s task will be shaped by the absence of Jack Hendry, who is suspended after his early red card against the Swiss. Hendry’s dismissal after 10 minutes effectively forced Scotland to abandon their system against Switzerland, and at least one change will be enforced in Skopje. Pocognoli had promised to give as many players as possible a chance during his first four-game international camp, and he made three changes from the opener in Ljubljana for Tuesday’s defeat.
With Hendry missing, Pocognoli could be tempted to abandon his preferred three-at-the-back system, though that seems unlikely. He may want to give the shape another chance to gel after it had to be abandoned so early against Switzerland. Stephen Welsh, who started in Slovenia, came on as an early substitute against the Swiss, while Scott McKenna has played the full 180 minutes across the two games and neither has harmed his reputation. Luis Binks was handed his debut against Switzerland and did not look out of place. Luke Graham has yet to make his Scotland debut, so the Stoke City 22-year-old could be an option to blood.
Aaron Hickey could return after being rested against the Swiss. The Brentford 24-year-old is not being risked over two matches in one week due to his injury record. There was a clamour among pundits for Hickey to be moved to right central defence, ostensibly to make space for winger Ben Gannon-Doak. That would mean Torino’s Nathan Patterson dropping out of the right wing-back spot after a difficult night against Switzerland. On the other side, captain Andy Robertson was replaced by Sassuolo’s Josh Doig for the final 15 minutes against the Swiss, but it would be unthinkable for the Tottenham Hotspur man to be handed any more rest in Skopje.
Gannon-Doak’s lack of starting spots with Bournemouth has continued with Scotland under Pocognoli, but he helped improve Scotland’s attacking threat as a substitute after the break in Slovenia. He then showed his willingness to track back and defend in a backs-to-the-wall second half against Switzerland. With the visit to Skopje viewed as must-win, Gannon-Doak’s speed and trickery are being touted as essential to shoe into the starting line-up. Josh McPake is a similar option on the other wing, but the Heart of Midlothian 25-year-old is likely to have to wait a tad longer for his debut.
In the continued absence of Scott McTominay, central midfield almost picks itself. Napoli’s Billy Gilmour has been a standout in both games under Pocognoli, while Bologna captain Lewis Ferguson is effective in doing the dirty work in protecting the defence. If anyone’s place is under threat, it could be John McGinn. A Scotland mainstay for so many years and often their biggest goal threat, he has been less influential over the past two games and may be feeling the effects of a heavy schedule at home and in Europe with Aston Villa. There are no standout replacements for the number 10 role, with fellow 31-year-old Ryan Christie having been more effective recently as a defensive midfielder with Bournemouth. Udinese 20-year-old Lennon Miller and uncapped Blackburn Rovers 22-year-old Kristi Montgomery have not even featured as substitutes.
Up front, Pocognoli could spring a surprise by reverting to the two-winger approach often adopted by predecessor Steve Clarke, which would mean one lone striker or one withdrawn into a number 10 role. Oli McBurnie proved effective in that role in the second half against Slovenia but, so far, the Belgian has preferred a two-pronged attack. McBurnie again impressed against Switzerland before running out of steam in the second half, and the Hull City 30-year-old would count himself unlucky not to be handed his third straight start after his recall from the international wilderness. Should Pocognoli decide to go with fresh legs, Sevilla’s Robbie Ure and Sassuolo’s Kieron Bowie have shown in flashes that they can be a threat at this level. Bowie was unfortunate, contributing a couple of nice touches before being sacrificed early after Hendry’s red card.
Goalkeeper continues to be Scotland’s Achilles heel. With Craig Gordon approaching an injury-hit end to his career and now retired, Angus Gunn has taken over as the undisputed number one. Despite having more regular club starts since his summer move from Nottingham Forest to San Jose Earthquakes, the 30-year-old has received some criticism for Switzerland’s first and third goals. The alternatives are limited. Scott Bain has only four caps and has had his own high-profile slip-ups amid good form with Falkirk this season, while Liam Kelly remains without club game time as second choice with Rangers. Pocognoli could take the risk of a change, even though North Macedonia are expected to pose a lesser threat than Slovenia or Switzerland.