Scotland close out the current Nations League window on Tuesday when Slovenia visit Hampden Park, with Sebastien Pocognoli chasing a second successive victory after the first win and first goals of his tenure finally arrived in North Macedonia.
Pocognoli’s reign had begun with a goalless draw in Slovenia last month, and the same opponents now arrive in Glasgow on the back of their own narrow 2-1 defeat away to group leaders Switzerland. Slovenia’s loss in Switzerland leaves Scotland with the chance to finish the window strongly, and the expectation around the camp is that a home fixture will again be one in which Pocognoli’s side are asked to do most of the attacking.
At least one change is unavoidable. Scott McKenna was shown a red card in the closing stages in Skopje, and the Dinamo Zagreb centre-back had been an ever-present until that dismissal. Jack Hendry, free of his own suspension, is expected to make a swift return, most likely alongside Brondby’s Luis Binks and Swansea City’s Stephen Welsh, who both enhanced their reputations in North Macedonia. Stoke City’s Luke Graham did not look out of place either when he made his debut from the bench.
Beyond that forced switch, Pocognoli has consistently made only limited alterations from game to game, despite talking before his first camp about needing to use his whole squad across the four fixtures. The fatigue of four matches in 11 days on some experienced and ageing legs is a factor he must weigh, with Angus Gunn, the San Jose Earthquakes goalkeeper, expected to keep his place after starting the win in Skopje.
The wide areas look settled in outline. Captain Andy Robertson, who earned his 100th cap in North Macedonia, is surely assured of another step towards Kenny Dalglish’s cap record, even with Sassuolo’s Josh Doig waiting in the wings. On the opposite flank, Aaron Hickey of Brentford, Torino’s Nathan Patterson and Celtic’s Colby Donovan are all natural right-backs, but Ben Gannon-Doak’s ability to combine tracking back with rampaging forward makes it likely the 20-year-old Bournemouth player is used in that role again, particularly in a home game.
The midfield diamond that has shone across the opening three matches is expected to survive intact. Billy Gilmour of Napoli and Bologna’s Lewis Ferguson should sit behind John McGinn, with the Aston Villa midfielder having answered recent critics with his penalty in North Macedonia. Udinese’s Lennon Miller appears likely to be left frustrated again, while Heart of Midlothian winger Josh McPake and Blackburn Rovers’ Kristi Montgomery probably face a longer wait for their debuts.
Up front, Kieron Bowie’s first Scotland goal is likely to secure the Sassuolo striker’s place in the starting line-up. Oli McBurnie has still to break his Scotland duck after 19 caps, but the Hull City forward contributed so many sublime touches and lay-offs in Skopje that it may be difficult for Robbie Ure to win another start, despite the promise shown by the Sevilla striker. The remaining question is whether McBurnie is deployed in a more withdrawn role on the left, mirrored by McGinn on the right, instead of in a two-pronged front line.
The fixture takes place at Hampden Park on Tuesday, 6 October, with a 19:45 BST kick-off. Pocognoli’s thinking will only become clear an hour before kick-off, when the teamsheets are confirmed.