Manchester City’s rule breaking may have cost their Premier League rivals as much as £844m, according to an analysis by BBC Sport that attempts to quantify the financial consequences of the club’s conduct. As it stands, City are guilty of all charges related to inflating their sponsorship income to the tune of £830m, plus another £90m in expenses. The club continues to deny any wrongdoing and has appealed.
The estimated £844m total is made up of £188.2m in Premier League placing money, £349.7m in relegation costs, £217.8m in missed Champions League prize money and £88.3m related to domestic cup competitions and the Europa League. Set against that is what City themselves earned across the same competitions: £1.17bn in all, comprising £812.3m from the Premier League in prize money and broadcast revenues, £363.4m via the Champions League, £900,000 from their FA Cup victory and £300,000 from three EFL Cup wins.
The backdrop is City’s transformation after Sheikh Mansour bought the club in 2008. Before that purchase, City’s highest league placing since finishing fifth in 1991-92 — the last season before the Premier League’s formation — had been eighth in 2004-05. Abu Dhabi money then poured in via what the Premier League’s independent commission described as a “disguised funding scheme”, taking the club’s sponsorship revenues from being on a par with Stoke City in 2008-09 to eventually overtaking those of Manchester United. City finished fifth in 2009-10; since then they have not finished outside the top four in the Premier League. Thirty-five other teams played in the English top flight between 2009 and 2018, and every one could in some way claim to have been left financially out of pocket.
The exercise is explicitly about chance rather than certainty. It does not set out how much compensation a team might be able to claim, nor does it argue that any side would definitely have avoided relegation or reached the Champions League. It has not considered potential future earnings from success, such as sponsors’ bonuses and further prize money, nor payments to players who may feel they missed out on salary increases. The figures were calculated using published prize money from the relevant seasons, with City’s Champions League earnings from a following season set against the impacted team’s Europa League income.
Former Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino gave the argument its sharpest voice. “We have lived through a period of deception,” he said. “No type of punishment will make it possible to repair what was done.”
Tottenham emerge as the most impacted club, with a net financial loss calculated at £119.9m. Spurs finished one place outside the Champions League positions in four of the eight seasons in which City qualified for the competition. Over those four seasons, City earned £148.2m from the Champions League while Tottenham took £29.9m from the Europa League. The 2014-15 campaign produced the biggest deficit: City finished second in the Premier League and Tottenham fifth, and City received £71.2m for reaching the Champions League semi-finals the following season while Spurs were paid £17.7m from the Europa League — a difference of £53.5m. Spurs also finished behind City in the league table six times, a cumulative prize money difference of £6.6m. They did benefit in 2013-14, qualifying for Europe only because City beat Sunderland in the EFL Cup final, a route worth £5.1m from their 2014-15 Europa League campaign.
Liverpool’s impact is put at £52.3m. The 2015-16 EFL Cup final proved decisive for their European hopes: Jürgen Klopp’s side lost to City on penalties after a 1-1 draw, the Europa League place transferred to the league and went to West Ham United, and Liverpool finished eighth. Manchester United’s Europa League win in 2016-17, worth £37.8m in prize money including a £26.6m market pool payment, offered a comparison for what Liverpool might have earned, though the analysis accepts it cannot say for certain that Liverpool would have won the competition, nor that the market pool share would not have been slightly lower with two English clubs involved. Along with £10.6m in Premier League place money — Liverpool finished below City in all nine relevant seasons — the total impact was £52.3m.
Everton are the third-most impacted club at £66.4m. They missed out on the Champions League once, in 2013-14, worth a calculated £32.6m — City’s £39m earnings from the competition minus the Toffees’ £6.4m from the Europa League they competed in instead. Four further times they finished one place below the final Europa League spot, a combined impact of £23.2m, to which £10.6m of Premier League prize money is added.
Hull City are second on £99m, largely through two relegations across the period that cost the Tigers £93.78m. They finished below City four times, adding £5.2m in place money. Swansea are fourth at £63.1m, of which £54m is from relegation and £9.1m in place money across seven seasons in the top flight. Newcastle’s relegation by finishing 18th in 2015-16 cost them a projected £60.4m, including £7.9m in place money. Norwich (£43.8m), Wigan (£39.6m), Burnley (£31.1m), Bolton (£26.4m) and Birmingham (£25.1m) also suffered relegations in 18th place.
Alongside Tottenham, four other teams missed out on Champions League football by one place across the eight seasons City qualified. Chelsea were hardest hit, finishing fifth in 2017-18: City earned £79.2m from reaching the quarter-finals while Chelsea took £39.4m from winning the Europa League, a deficit of £39.8m. Everton, fifth in 2013-14, had a £32.6m deficit and Arsenal, fifth in 2016-17, £22.1m. Manchester United were the least affected — fifth in 2015-16, they won the Europa League for £37.8m while City earned £42.6m for reaching the round of 16, leaving a deficit of £4.8m.
In the Premier League there is no separate prize pot for being crowned champions; broadcast revenue is allocated on a merit basis by final league position, so the only financial difference for a team finishing one place higher is a single base payment. The value of a Premier League place rose sharply over the period, from £755,881 in 2010-11 to £1.94m by 2016-17. Everton, Liverpool and Stoke City would have the biggest claim of £10.7m, having finished below City in all nine seasons, while West Brom and West Ham’s total is £9.9m and Swansea’s £9.1m. At the other end of the scale are the seven clubs who spent a single season in the Premier League, including Blackpool (£756,756), Portsmouth (£800,424) and Huddersfield (£1.93m).