Two coaches have already lost their jobs this season, and plenty more will be looking over their shoulders as the campaign pauses for a new, extended international break. Paul Heckingbottom at Preston North End and Michael Duff at Wycombe Wanderers are the two to have departed so far.
The final fixture before players scatter around the world with their countries is Sunday’s meeting between Fulham and Manchester United at Craven Cottage, a game that carries weight for both men in the dugout.
Alvaro Arbeloa is still new to the job, having been appointed as Fulham’s manager in the summer after taking charge of just 28 games as Real Madrid boss in the second half of last season. But with no wins and three defeats in his first four Premier League matches, and speculation of unrest among the squad linked to players’ social media activity, the pressure is already on. It is unclear exactly how much danger he is in, though there appears to be some substance to reports of disgruntlement among elements of the squad, and his significant tactical changes since replacing Marco Silva have left the side vulnerable at the back — even if a more solid display produced a goalless draw away to Liverpool last weekend. Owner Shahid Khan has shown a ruthless streak before, with Claudio Ranieri lasting just 106 days in charge and Felix Magath sacked in September 2014.
Michael Carrick faces his own questions at Old Trafford, particularly after Wednesday’s 3-2 EFL Cup exit to Brighton. It was the first time United had led at home by two goals and lost since they were beaten 3-2 by Tottenham in 1976. Coming on the back of a 1-0 loss to 10-man Manchester City, and with their only victories this season against Ipswich Town and Sabah, Carrick needs results. He has argued it would be “ridiculous” to view the Fulham trip as make or break, and he built enough credit last season by steering the club into the Champions League to ride out a poor start. The concern is less about an immediate dismissal and more about the external inquests a defeat at Craven Cottage would trigger, given United have not lost there since 2009 and Fulham sit bottom with a single point.
History suggests clubs are reluctant to act this early. Over the past 10 years it has been rare for a Premier League manager to be replaced at this stage, and rarer still during an international break. In the past decade only two managers — Watford’s Javi Gracia in 2019 and Nottingham Forest’s Nuno Espirito Santo last year — have moved on during the September break. The October stoppage has claimed just two more, Francesco Guidolin at Swansea in 2016 and Xisco Munoz at Watford in 2021. November is the more dangerous month, with six bosses replaced over the past 10 years, and in the past 10 campaigns nine coaches had already left by the time the second international break arrived. That does not mean managers are safe during breaks — merely that the changes were not made then.
Tony Pulis, the former Stoke, West Brom and Middlesbrough boss, believes the pauses in the calendar genuinely heighten the chances of a struggling manager being sacked. In his experience the October and November international breaks, the pause just after Christmas, and early March were the three sticking points, because a break gives a club time to appoint a new manager and let him settle in, take stock of the surroundings and staff, and prepare for a first game. He does not see this September break as a flashing light — it is too early — but says the international calendar does not help managers either way, with winning teams wanting to keep playing while struggling ones want time to put things right, and players travelling early in the season raising the risk of injuries.
Elsewhere the picture varies. Roberto de Zerbi is not under pressure at Tottenham despite no wins from six games, even after the club spent about £300m on new talent over the summer; the sense is that it is only a matter of time before the team clicks, though it needs to click sooner rather than later. Pierre Sage has had an indifferent start at Crystal Palace, with one league win and a leaky defence since his arrival from Lens, though allowances are being made for the unavailability of key attackers Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta. A 4-0 win over Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thursday eased some of the pressure, but a defeat at Leeds would come at the worst possible time.
At Burnley, Nicky Hayen quit Genk to lead the club’s bid for an immediate return to the Premier League, only to see his side go winless in their first eight matches. The Clarets began the season as third favourites for promotion behind West Ham and Wolves, and after admitting he was under pressure before a must-win game against Derby, he watched a stoppage-time leveller rescue a 1-1 draw that left Burnley rock-bottom going into the break. The board may now assess their options, while Derby’s John Eustace — who almost took the club to the play-offs last season — is not safe either with his side in the relegation zone.
Watford managers can never rest easy. Alessio Dionisi, appointed in the summer, became the club’s 27th permanent manager in just under 18 years, and Friday’s defeat at Bristol City left the Hornets with two wins from their first eight league games. Sitting 19th, three points above the drop zone, it would be no surprise if owner Gino Pozzo opted for an early change.