England begin their Nations League campaign against Spain at Wembley on Saturday, a fixture that will arrive tinged with a sense of what might have been. The match comes three months after the Three Lions missed out on a place in the World Cup final, losing to Argentina in the semi-finals, which denied them a repeat of the Euro 2024 final against La Roja – a game Spain won.
England’s recent record against the very best offers little encouragement. In their past 15 matches against sides ranked in Fifa’s world top 10, they have won six. Three of those victories came at major tournaments: the Euro semi-finals in 2021 and 2024, against Denmark and the Netherlands respectively, and the bronze-medal match against France at this summer’s World Cup.
The France win carried its own significance: it was Thomas Tuchel’s first victory as England boss over a top-10 opponent. His first win over a side ranked inside the top 20 had come earlier in the same tournament, in England’s opening group game against Croatia.
Six wins in 15 is not a return that a team with ambitions of winning major tournaments can regard as satisfactory. Two of those wins sent England through to the Euro finals of 2020 and 2024. One came in the World Cup match nobody wants to play. Two were Euro qualifiers against an Italy side already in sharp decline, and one came against Belgium in a Nations League fixture six years ago. Against genuinely elite opposition, England continue to stumble – and nowhere more so than at the World Cup.
England have been eliminated every time they have met a top-10 ranked nation in the knockout stages of the World Cup since 1998, a run of seven defeats from seven. In their past 10 World Cup matches against top-10 sides, their only win came in the 2002 group stage against Argentina. Against defending world champions at the tournament, they have lost on all four occasions: 4-2 to Uruguay in 1954, 3-1 to Brazil in 1962, 2-1 to France in 2022 and 2-1 to Argentina in 2026.
The picture is somewhat better at the Euros, where England overcame top-10 opponents in Denmark and the Netherlands to reach the final at each of the past two tournaments, only to fall at the last hurdle against Spain in 2024 and Italy in 2020. Their lowest possession figures in their last 15 games against top-10 opposition came in the semi-final defeat to Argentina this summer (35.8%), the Euro 2024 final against Spain (34.9%) and the Euro 2020 final against Italy (42.1%).
Harry Kane, England’s all-time top scorer with 85 goals, was asked what missing ingredient is needed to get the team over the line. “I think it’s just in those biggest moments, still being ourselves,” he told BBC Radio 5 Live. “The Argentina game was so hard to take, because we had a mindset of going to win the tournament, win in our way and our style, and if we lose trying to do that then we will take that. The Argentina game was maybe the first game we tried ‘not to lose’ in the last 30 minutes and then we ended up losing anyway.”
Kane, who has scored 152 goals in 154 games for Bayern and won two Bundesliga titles, drew on that experience. “You don’t fear anyone,” the 33-year-old said. “You go and be yourself, if a team beats you, shake their hand after and say well done. You have an identity that you keep throughout. I think with England now that is where we need to look. We are very close, we have been very close but ultimately, we don’t need to fear anyone. We just need to be ourselves in the biggest moments and hopefully get over the line.”
The wider analysis of England’s recent tournaments points to a recurring theme: an inability to dominate possession and control games against elite opposition. At Euro 2020, the last-16 win over Germany was a major moment – beating one of the historic footballing powers – but that German side were in transition and were, at the time, ranked outside the world’s top 10. England then lost the final to Italy after taking the lead, dropping deep and surrendering possession before going down on penalties.
At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the Three Lions opened with a free-flowing 6-2 win over Iran. Although that was not top-level opposition, the shift in mentality from previous tournaments was notable – but the same issues resurfaced. Despite being the better team for much of the game against France, a missed Harry Kane penalty and Les Bleus’ know-how sent England out at the quarter-final stage.
Euro 2024 proved one tournament too far for Gareth Southgate’s side, who never came close to their best and relied on individual quality to progress. A last-gasp Ollie Watkins strike was needed to beat the Netherlands in the semi-finals, while Kane was not at full fitness, and without him at his best England never troubled a formidable Spain.
After a flawless 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign and the arrival of a new elite coach in Tuchel, many believed this was England’s time. Despite showing togetherness and grit in the last-16 win over Mexico, the same old problems resurfaced. England cannot seem to translate world-class talent into ball possession and control of games, with Tuchel saying he may have to embrace the chaos and Anthony Gordon adding that England should lean on their traditional direct style. Perhaps that is what is needed to finally end their long wait for a trophy.