Five matches into a Premier League season, the table can feel like a curiosity rather than a guide. Dig into recent history, though, and the standings are already more settled than the small sample size suggests.
Any reading of the table comes with one large caveat. Manchester City have been found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them, and the club have appealed. If the guilty verdict stands, potential sanctions could have a significant impact on the standings. Until that is resolved, the table can only be read as it currently stands.
Last season offers the clearest illustration of how little movement there often is. Thirteen of the 20 clubs finished within four places of the position they occupied after five games, a rate of 65%. Arsenal, the eventual champions, were already second at that stage. Sunderland sat seventh after five games and finished seventh eight months later, while two of the three relegated clubs were already in the bottom three.
There were notable exceptions. Aston Villa climbed out of the bottom three to finish in the top four, while Tottenham went the other way, dropping to 17th. The two clubs effectively swapped ends of the table.
Across the last 10 Premier League seasons the pattern holds. A total of 138 of 200 clubs — more than two-thirds — finished within four places of where they stood after five games, and 27 of them ended the campaign in exactly the same position. A further 50 finished between five and nine places away. Only 12 teams in the past decade moved up or down by double digits after this point, and three of those came last season.
One part of the table that resists settling is the very top. The side leading after five games has gone on to win the title in only one of the last six seasons — Manchester City in 2023-24 — and just three times in the last 11 campaigns.
City’s current five wins from five is no guarantee either. They also won their opening five games under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and in Pep Guardiola’s first season in 2016-17 without going on to take the title, although they did convert a 100% start into the trophy in 2023-24. Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were all top with perfect records at this stage and had little to show for it in May.
What does carry weight is the position of the eventual champions. They have been in the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns, which points towards Manchester City or Arsenal lifting the trophy — potential punishments aside. The last side to win the title from outside the top two at this stage was Manchester City in 2021-22, when they were fifth with 10 points.
The upper reaches of the table have sometimes locked into place remarkably quickly. The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished the season as the top eight, albeit in a different order. The top six in 2019-20 and the top seven in 2016-17 were also already in place at this early stage.
At the other end, the bottom of the table carries a far more reliable warning. The club bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons. Tottenham, who finished one place above the drop in each of the last two campaigns, currently occupy that position and could be in trouble again.
That has not always been the case. Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of the six sides propping up the table after five games went down — Newcastle in 2015-16 — and Crystal Palace finished as high as 11th in 2017-18. Tottenham themselves offer the most encouraging precedent: in 2008-09 they were bottom with two points after five games, replaced manager Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp three games later and still finished eighth.
Looking at the relegation fight more broadly, at least one of the teams in the bottom three at this stage has been relegated in each of the last eight seasons. Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry currently make up that bottom three, so one of them will very likely be playing Championship football in May.
The pool of candidates may already be decided, too. The three clubs relegated in each of the last three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games, which would add Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the mix. The last sides to be relegated from outside the bottom six at this point were Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23, who were both in the top half in seventh and ninth. Hull, in eighth, and Ipswich, in 11th, will hope that remains the case come the end of the campaign.
The season has barely begun, but the shape of the Premier League table is already forming.