Manchester City have been found guilty of the majority of the 115 Premier League charges levelled against them, and with the club’s punishment still unclear, attention is turning to what the verdict means for the current squad.
An independent commission confirmed on Tuesday that City were guilty of all charges relating to breaches of the league’s financial regulations between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons. The club has repeatedly denied guilt, and an appeal must be lodged by Friday. Until sanctions are settled, there is uncertainty over City’s ability to retain players, renew contracts and make transfers, and over whether any members of the team have release clauses.
The prevailing view is that any drop down the divisions would lead to a mass exodus. City’s squad is full of international talent, many of whose profiles and personal sponsorship agreements benefit from playing in the Premier League, so players considering their futures in the event of demotion would be understandable. Among sources close to the first team, there is a significant level of concern about how they will be affected. Given the scathing tone of the Premier League’s statement on Tuesday, there is major scepticism from people close to the players that the forthcoming appeals will earn the club any reprieve, though others fully believe in the vows of City executives Khaldoon Al Mubarak and Ferran Soriano to prove the club’s innocence.
Leaving would not be straightforward for any player who decides they do not want to drop down the divisions. City have the right to demand transfer fees regardless of an individual’s wishes, and given how much those players are worth in wages and on the market, the club are unlikely to accept being undercut. The majority of players do not have relegation clauses in their contracts, which plays into the club’s hands, and the contracts are generally understood to be fully guaranteed, meaning players would not be required to take percentage pay cuts if they lose top-flight status. With one of the highest wage bills in the world, sustaining that expenditure without Premier League income will become harder, and although parachute money could ease concerns, there are no guarantees City would be entitled to those payments if demoted. Keeping the squad completely intact after a drop down the leagues therefore appears unlikely.
How amenable City are to selling will depend on how bullish they are about the situation. They are probably not a distressed seller and retain strong control regardless of how their players feel, and they are unlikely to simply let disillusioned players depart without suitable offers given their financial strength. Players face big decisions too, since City are big payers and other clubs may not be willing to meet similar wage demands. “Some players want medals, all players want money,” one agent said.
Contract renewals carry added risk. Amending a contract retrospectively, for example to include a relegation clause, generally cannot happen, so any exit strategies for players if the club falls out of the Premier League would have to be negotiated as new contracts. Players will likely want to wait for clarity on the sanctions before entering into discussions, and a number of agents believe players will be advised to wait before even considering opening talks. One way around that would be to offer a significant financial incentive to re-sign. City are helped by the fact that only Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes, Marcus Bettinelli and Geronimo Rulli have contracts expiring in the next two summers. Complicating matters further, Fifa is preparing to introduce rules stating that every deal signed on 1 January 2027 or after must include a release clause.
The transfer market is likewise complicated. One leading agent noted that potential new signings are not yet in the building and that joining City without knowing what the punishment would be represents an undeniable risk, so any new contracts would have to include indemnities. Writing eventualities into new registrations is difficult, though City players do have release clauses in their deals should the club enter administration. Until a post-appeal verdict on sanctions is reached, making new signings will be more complicated, though City will still likely be able to attract big players given their financial muscle. One method of persuading a player to join would be to offer a contract on big money with no pay decreases if the club are relegated, plus a fixed-fee release clause if City do not return to the top flight within a set period. If sanctions ensure relegation and include further points deductions stretching over multiple seasons, attracting top players becomes harder, and it seems inconceivable that an elite footballer would join with demotion a possibility when other top options are likely available. The same logic applies to keeping the current squad, with interest in their top players from other elite European clubs almost certain.
If relegation is confirmed, City will have to rebuild their squad to some extent, though the prospect of a transfer embargo as a sanction would prevent them making any signings at all. Such a rebuild could include promoting some of the club’s best academy players, who stand to benefit if the first-team squad disbands. When Chelsea were placed under a transfer embargo in 2019, Mason Mount, Tammy Abraham, Fikayo Tomori, Billy Gilmour and Callum Hudson-Odoi all emerged as senior players. City may look to rebuild with a profile of player they believe can be successful in the EFL, likely fast-tracking a number of younger players. A number of clubs are already working on capitalising on the uncertainty by trying to lure City’s best academy talent.