England will move to the brink of the 2026-27 Nations League quarter-finals if they beat the Czech Republic at Wembley on Tuesday night. Thomas Tuchel’s side sit second in Group A3 after three matches, and a win would all but confirm their place in next March’s quarter-finals. Tuesday’s fixture closes the fourth round of group-stage matches, with the final two full rounds to be played in November’s international break. More than half of the group stage is now complete.
The eight teams finishing in the top two of the four League A groups progress to the knockout rounds, which begin in March 2027 and are played over two legs. The winners of each tie reach the semi-finals in June 2027, staged as one-off matches on Wednesday 9 and Thursday 10 June, with the final on Sunday 13 June. Below League A, group winners in Leagues B and C earn promotion for the next cycle, while the runners-up in those groups face a third-placed team from the league above in a promotion/relegation play-off. The losers of the relegation play-offs go down, along with the bottom-placed finishers in every League A and League B group. Because the format changes for the next cycle, which will be played across 2028 and 2029, all League D teams are guaranteed promotion to League C and no League C side will be relegated; the next campaign will consist of three larger leagues, with no League D.
Portugal are the only side certain of a quarter-final place, having won their opening four matches in Group A4. Spain can join them from Group A3 on Tuesday if they beat Croatia and the Czech Republic fail to beat England. Should both England and Spain win, England would need only one point from their remaining matches against Croatia and Spain in November to secure a last-eight spot.
Group A1 is a three-way fight: France and Italy occupy the top two, with Belgium a point behind Italy in third, and two of those three will advance. In Group A2, the Netherlands and Greece are the top two and sit three points clear of Germany, with Serbia bottom on zero points; again two of the leading three go through. In A4, Denmark are second and three points clear of Wales and Norway, one of whom will join Portugal.
Wales’ path is harder. Drawn with Portugal, Denmark and Norway, they have three points from four games, earned by beating Norway 2-1 in Cardiff. With Portugal already through, Wales will need close to maximum points from their remaining matches against Norway and Portugal to stand any chance of reaching the last eight. A third-place finish would put them in a relegation play-off in March, while finishing bottom would guarantee a drop down to League B.
Scotland, who also have three rounds of fixtures left, host Slovenia at Hampden Park on Tuesday. They are third in League B1 but behind Slovenia only on goal difference, and a win for Sebastien Pocognoli’s side would take them second behind Switzerland going into the November break. With their penultimate game against bottom-of-the-table North Macedonia, wins in their next two matches would all but seal a top-two place before a final meeting with Switzerland, who are expected to take the automatic promotion spot.
Northern Ireland have taken two wins and two draws without conceding a goal in four Group B2 matches and lead the group by a point. Their remaining fixtures are against bottom side Georgia and second-placed Hungary: beating Georgia while Hungary fail to beat Ukraine would guarantee top spot and promotion, while a win combined with a Hungary win would set up a promotion decider between the two in the final round. The Republic of Ireland are third in Group B3 with five points from their first four matches and finish against the top two, Austria and Kosovo. Winning both would guarantee a top-two finish and leave them well placed to win the group, depending on goal difference and the result of Austria’s meeting with Israel.
Once this Nations League campaign is over, the competing nations will be ranked on their performance, and that ranking will have a direct impact on qualifying for Euro 2028, which is being held in England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland. Regular qualifying runs from March to November 2027, with play-offs for the remaining places in March 2028. None of the four co-hosts has been granted automatic qualification, so how many of them qualify will effectively determine how many play-off spots are available. Uefa has said up to two places will go to the best-ranked co-hosts that fail to qualify through the primary route, and scenarios have been drawn up for two, one or no co-hosts receiving entry spots; depending on which play-off format is required, either eight or 12 teams will enter.
The finals will feature 24 teams, 20 of them made up of the winners of the 12 qualifying groups and the eight best runners-up. The remaining runners-up go into the play-offs alongside the Nations League group winners from Leagues A, B and C who did not finish in the top two of their Euro 2028 qualifying group. If extra teams are required, the best-ranked League D group winner enters, and any further places filter down to the next-highest ranked Nations League finishers until the play-off field is filled.