Wales have had little time to celebrate their Nations League win over Norway. Craig Bellamy’s side beat Norway 2-1 in Cardiff on Thursday, a result that ended a six-game winless run. Now the focus turns to Denmark, who visit Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday, 4 October (19:45 BST) in Group A4.
A victory over Denmark would mean back-to-back wins over higher-ranked nations for the first time in more than a decade. It would also offer Wales an opportunity to take a huge step towards securing their top-tier Nations League status and significantly boost their Euro 2028 qualification hopes.
Wales’ win over Norway was their first in this Nations League A campaign, having opened with defeats in Portugal and Denmark. They lost 2-0 to Denmark in Copenhagen last weekend. Thursday’s win did not move Wales off the bottom of Group A4, where they trail Denmark and Norway on goal difference.
Beating Denmark would keep Wales’ fate in their own hands going into next month’s final fixtures, against Norway in Oslo on 14 November and Portugal in Cardiff three days later. It would also keep alive hopes of finishing second and reaching next spring’s Nations League knock-outs, with two-legged quarter-finals in March.
This is Wales’ second campaign in League A. Their previous attempt ended in immediate relegation without a win under Rob Page in 2022, and Bellamy has stated that the aim is to avoid a similar fate.
The consequences of finishing bottom have been eased by a format change for the next Nations League in 2028-29. Previously, the bottom teams from each of the four League A groups were automatically relegated, while the four third-placed sides went into a relegation/promotion play-off against the four runners-up from League B. This time, only the two worst-performing bottom sides go down, with the remaining pair going into two-legged play-offs in March 2027. The two best-performing third-placed sides are assured of their status, with the next two heading into the play-offs. Ranking is based on points, goal difference and the usual tie-breaking criteria.
Currently, Wales are the best of the fourth-placed sides. A win over Denmark would give them real hope of avoiding the play-offs altogether.
Euro 2028 adds another layer. Seeding for qualifying is based on where teams finish in the Nations League’s overall ranking. Wales will co-host the tournament with England, the Republic of Ireland and Scotland but will still go through the standard qualifying process. The draw takes place in Belfast on 6 December, with teams split into 12 groups and the seeds decided by Nations League rankings. The best-performing 12 sides after next month’s final fixtures will be kept apart as first seeds. In other words, if Wales avoid finishing bottom, they will be a top seed for the draw and avoid facing any of the big guns.
All of the co-hosting nations will be kept apart in the draw and will attempt to qualify automatically, but two places will be reserved at the finals should any of those host nations fail to qualify. Cardiff’s Principality Stadium will host the opening game of the European Championships on Friday 9 June 2028.